Microsoft Gears Up For Bigger AI Push With Rising Capex And Cloud Confidence

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft Corporation is experiencing renewed momentum in its cloud business, driven by strong demand for security services within Azure, as it approaches its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings release on October 29, 2025, indicating a need for higher capital expenditure [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Analyst Ratings - Bank of America Securities analyst Brad Sills maintains a Buy rating on Microsoft with a price forecast of $640, reflecting optimism ahead of earnings [2] - Sills expects up to 1% upside to the $77 billion revenue estimate, which represents an 18.2% year-over-year increase (16.2% in constant currency) [4] - Projected fiscal 2026 sales are $322.1 billion with an EPS of $15.24, and first-quarter sales are expected to be $77.5 billion with an EPS of $3.64 [8] Group 2: Azure and Business Growth - Azure growth is anticipated at 39% (38% in constant currency), slightly above the base case of 38% (37% in constant currency), with security strength compensating for some workload softness [4] - Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) growth is projected at 22.7% (21.7% in constant currency), driven by strong demand for E3/E5 commercial Office licenses [5] Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Capital Expenditure - Microsoft is strategically expanding its AI infrastructure while balancing scale and energy independence, with increasing visibility into compute investments [6] - Expected upward revisions to fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecasts from $115 billion (36% of revenue) to around $125 billion (38% of revenue) [7] - Potential margin expansion and accelerating commercial Office growth are additional positive drivers for the company [7] Group 4: Market Position and Partner Sentiment - Microsoft is viewed as a top pick and an AI leader in both applications and infrastructure, with strong momentum reported by channel partners in Azure, AI, and security [8]