10月LPR保持不变 年内降息降准可期

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for five consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting stable monetary policy and market expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has not changed since May 2025, when it was reduced by 10 basis points from 3.1% to 3% for the one-year rate and from 3.6% to 3.5% for the five-year rate [2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to unchanged policy rates, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 1.89 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.4%, maintaining consistency in monetary policy [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment, including rising financing costs for commercial banks and historical low net interest margins, limits the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes further [2][3]. Group 2: Future LPR Expectations - There is potential for a decrease in LPR before the end of the year, driven by efforts to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [4][5]. - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in September 2025 was approximately 3.1%, which is 40 basis points lower than the previous year, indicating a trend towards lower borrowing costs [4]. - External factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, may further support the case for a reduction in LPR, as domestic monetary policy could become more accommodative [5][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Impacts - The net interest margin for commercial banks has been declining, reaching 1.42% by the end of Q2 2025, down 10 basis points from Q4 2024, indicating pressure on bank profitability [3]. - Recent economic data show a decline in consumption, investment, and industrial production, which may necessitate stronger measures to stabilize growth and employment in the fourth quarter [5][6]. - The anticipated regulatory measures may include targeted reductions in the five-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [6].