7来首次，9月归零！中国还是没买美国大豆

Core Insights - China has not imported any soybeans from the U.S. in September, marking the first time since November 2018 that imports dropped to zero [1] - The ongoing trade dispute between China and the U.S. has led Chinese buyers to avoid U.S. sources, significantly increasing soybean exports from South America [1][2] - China remains the world's largest soybean importer, with total imports reaching 86.18 million tons from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] Import Data - In September, China's soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, marking the second-highest monthly import on record [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China surged by 29.9% year-on-year in September, totaling 10.96 million tons, while Argentina's exports increased by 91.5% to 1.17 million tons [1][2] - From January to September, China imported 63.70 million tons of soybeans from Brazil (up 2.4% year-on-year) and 2.90 million tons from Argentina (up 31.8% year-on-year) [2] Trade Relations - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to high tariffs and completed transactions of old crop soybeans, leading to a decline in imports from the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. agricultural sector is under pressure, with farmers facing potential losses amounting to billions of dollars if trade negotiations do not yield results [2][4] - The U.S. soybean association indicates that China has historically been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, with an expected import of approximately 27 million tons valued at nearly $12.8 billion in 2024 [5] Market Dynamics - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports has decreased by 56% year-on-year, from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [5] - U.S. farmers are attempting to find alternative markets in Southeast Asia, but they acknowledge the difficulty in replacing the Chinese market [6] - Long-term prospects for U.S. soybean exports to China appear bleak, as China questions the reliability of trade commitments from the Trump administration and pushes for self-sufficiency [6]