上海房东降价，买家进场

Core Insights - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is experiencing a unique phenomenon where 91% of neighborhoods have seen a decrease in listing prices, yet transaction volumes have surged to over 18,000 units, indicating a potential market recovery [1][5][10] Price Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in various cities have continued to decline month-on-month, with first-tier cities seeing a 1.0% drop in second-hand residential prices [3][10] - In September, the average listing price in Shanghai's neighborhoods fell by 13.6% over the past year, with a notable acceleration in price reductions since the second half of 2025 [5][6] Transaction Dynamics - Despite the decline in listing prices, the transaction volume in Shanghai's second-hand market increased by 3% month-on-month in September, with 45% of neighborhoods experiencing a rise in transaction prices [1][5] - The bargaining space in the second-hand market has narrowed from 19% in August to 15%, indicating a convergence in price expectations between buyers and sellers [5][16] Demand Drivers - The core driver for the stabilization of housing prices in Shanghai is the demand from first-time homebuyers, particularly following the "8.25" policy adjustments that have relaxed purchasing restrictions and improved financing options [6][9] - In September, 47% of neighborhoods catering to first-time buyers saw a month-on-month increase in prices, reflecting a growing confidence among this demographic [6][10] Regional Variations - The transaction volume in September was notably high in districts such as Jinshan and Fengxian, with properties priced under 2 million yuan accounting for 46.56% of total transactions, marking a 2.79 percentage point increase [7][8] - There are significant disparities in price movements across different districts, with some areas experiencing price declines while others see increases, highlighting the fragmented nature of the current market [11][12][14] Market Outlook - The ongoing changes in the real estate market suggest a shift from a nationwide price increase trend to a new normal characterized by differentiation and localized opportunities [10][14] - The future performance of mid-to-high-end properties will largely depend on new listings and the availability of quality new housing products in the market [13]