LPR连续5个月“按兵不动” 降息窗口还需等待

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, reflecting stable policy rates and bank margin pressures [1][2]. Monetary Policy and LPR Stability - The stability of the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40% has been a significant factor in maintaining the LPR [2]. - Bank net interest margins are under pressure, with the net interest margin for commercial banks dropping to 1.42% by the end of Q2 2025, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous year [1][2]. Market Conditions and Future Expectations - There is an expectation for targeted LPR reductions by the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [6]. - The central bank has indicated a commitment to maintaining adequate liquidity and supporting consumption and investment, especially in light of external economic pressures [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in September was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points [3]. External Influences - The potential for further easing of external constraints, particularly with the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, may provide a favorable environment for China's monetary policy adjustments [6][7].