美元遭遇重挫，150关口告急，日元避险买盘狂涌

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly sensitive to any signals from Federal Reserve officials, as the lack of clear economic data creates uncertainty, leading to potential volatility in exchange rates [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant drop, breaking the psychological barrier of 150, reaching a low of 149.90, with a decline of 0.30%, which heightened market tension [2] - The yen's safe-haven appeal has surged due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, resulting in increased capital inflow and a rise in the yen's value [3] - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health have eased, bolstered by growing expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan by year-end, supported by cautious statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Political Climate - The Federal Reserve has signaled a more dovish stance, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025, which has pressured the dollar and accelerated the shift of funds from dollar assets to yen-denominated safe-haven assets [5] - The ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. has further weighed on the dollar, with the Senate rejecting a short-term funding bill for the tenth time, raising concerns about the potential economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technically, the USD/JPY pair faces critical support around the 149.40 Fibonacci retracement level; a breach could lead to a rapid decline towards 148.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - Despite increasing political turmoil in Japan, strong demand for safe-haven assets has overshadowed its impact on the yen, reflecting a complex and divided market sentiment among investors [8] - Resistance levels for potential rebounds are noted at 150.30 and a more significant barrier at 151.00, making it challenging for bulls to reverse the overall bearish trend in the short term [10]