全球都在涨，只有我们跌麻了

Group 1 - The global real estate market in 2025 shows a stark contrast, with UBS data indicating a 10.4% increase in the global real estate index, while China's housing market is in a downturn, with many landlords facing falling prices and unsold properties [1][4] - Major cities worldwide are experiencing rapid price increases, such as Tokyo's core area seeing over a 60% rise in prices over five years, and Seoul's 80 square meter apartments selling for 8.68 million RMB, nearly doubling in four years [1][4] - The price increases in these cities are driven by population growth, rising incomes, and a loose monetary environment, with Australia seeing over 400,000 net immigrants annually and Japan's university graduate employment rate at 98% with a 3.1% increase in starting salaries [1][4] Group 2 - In contrast, China's real estate market is facing a fundamental reversal in supply and demand, with Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices dropping to 25,000 RMB per square meter, a 1.25% month-on-month decline, while some new developments in Beijing sell out quickly [2][4] - The inventory of commercial housing nationwide requires over 23 months to deplete, with cities like Zhengzhou and Wuhan seeing second-hand housing listings exceeding 200,000 units [2][4] - The demand side is under pressure, with marriage rates projected to fall below 5 million in 2024 and a significant decrease in the population of those born in the 1990s compared to the 1980s, leading to a substantial decline in traditional home-buying demand [2][4] Group 3 - The adjustment in China's housing market is not indicative of industry decline but rather the end of a bubble era, with past price increases driven by demographic and policy advantages rather than investment acumen [4][5] - The future of China's real estate market is expected to show a clear stratification, where properties in core urban areas will remain competitive, while vacant properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face significant value depreciation [4][5] - This adjustment is seen as a positive development, allowing housing to return to its fundamental purpose and freeing individuals from the obsession of being "trapped by housing" [4][5]