刘长松、潘家华：“十五五”时期，我国该如何全面应对气候变化造成的安全挑战？

Core Viewpoint - The global climate crisis is intensifying, with the average global temperature in 2024 surpassing the pre-industrial level increase of 1.5°C for the first time, posing severe challenges to urban safety and socio-economic development in China [1][2]. Group 1: Global Climate Situation - The global temperature is rising rapidly, with 2024 confirmed as the hottest year on record, exceeding the 1.5°C target [2]. - Nine out of sixteen climate tipping points have already been breached, including significant ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica, coral reef death, and thawing permafrost [2]. - The frequency and severity of climate disasters are increasing, with an average of 350 to 500 major disaster events occurring annually over the past 20 years, projected to rise to 560 by 2030 [3]. Group 2: Economic and Social Impact - Developing countries face greater losses from disasters, averaging 1% of GDP annually, compared to 0.1%-0.3% for developed countries, with the Asia-Pacific region experiencing the highest losses at 1.6% of GDP [3]. - Climate change is identified as the greatest development and security threat of the 21st century, affecting approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people living in highly vulnerable areas [3]. Group 3: International Cooperation Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and rising trade barriers hinder international climate cooperation, exacerbating the climate security situation [5]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are examples of unilateral measures that disrupt global trade and impact China's green transition [5]. Group 4: China's Climate Security Risks - China is in a climate-sensitive zone, facing risks to ecosystems, human health, and infrastructure due to climate change [6]. - Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, are increasing, with significant economic losses and impacts on key industries across all major regions [6][7]. - The risk of ecosystem degradation, urban environmental challenges, and public health threats are rising, with extreme heat and vector-borne diseases becoming more prevalent [7][8]. Group 5: Policy and Strategic Recommendations - A comprehensive climate security framework is needed, focusing on mitigation, adaptation, and safety strategies to address the escalating risks [10]. - Investment in climate resilience infrastructure and early warning systems is crucial to enhance adaptive capacity and reduce economic losses from extreme weather [12]. - Strengthening international collaboration and domestic climate governance is essential to effectively tackle climate security challenges [12][13].