美联储降息预期升温 未来决策或保持谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 to support a weakening labor market while aiming to bring inflation back to the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, with the labor market being a key factor driving this monetary policy adjustment [2]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted signs of further cooling in the labor market, suggesting a potential second rate cut of the year to address the sharp slowdown in job growth [2][3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is around 98%, according to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - The latest Beige Book report indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing a complex phase of inflationary pressure alongside a weakening labor market, with many employers resorting to layoffs due to weak demand and economic uncertainty [2][5]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem expressed support for a rate cut if labor market risks continue, while also cautioning against excessive easing due to ongoing inflation risks [3][6]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - Powell hinted that the Fed's balance sheet reduction process may be nearing its end, with signs of tightening liquidity conditions [4]. - Analysts suggest that ending the balance sheet reduction would signal a shift from tightening to easing monetary policy, with expectations for a potential announcement in October or December [4][5]. - The Fed's total liabilities have decreased to $6.5 trillion as of October 8, down from a peak of approximately $9 trillion [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Despite the consensus on a potential rate cut, there remains internal division within the Fed regarding the future path of rate cuts, with several officials emphasizing the need to remain vigilant about inflation risks [5][6]. - The Beige Book noted that tariffs imposed during the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, complicating the balance between absorbing costs and passing them on to customers [5][6]. - Musalem warned that the impact of tariffs on price pressures may continue for the next two to three quarters, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [6][7].