供需矛盾加剧 生猪弱势格局难扭转

Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for live pigs during the National Day holiday showed a "peak season not prosperous" trend, with prices declining and supply pressures expected to persist post-holiday [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - After the National Day holiday, the supply pressure in the live pig market is unlikely to ease, leading to a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with the average price of live pigs reported at 10.95 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 38.96% [1][3]. - The futures market for live pigs saw a decline, with the main contract hitting a record low of 11,120 yuan/ton on October 13, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment regarding future supply and demand dynamics [3]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has held multiple meetings to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, suggesting measures such as reducing the number of breeding sows and controlling new production capacity [4]. - A significant policy directive was issued requiring the top 25 pig farming enterprises to reduce their breeding sows by 1 million heads by the end of January 2026, representing about 10% of their current stock [4]. Current Industry Metrics - As of August 2025, the national breeding sow stock was reported at 40.38 million heads, slightly above the normal range, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [5]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has improved, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 24 to over 26, leading to prolonged capacity cycles [5]. Market Behavior and Trends - Due to falling prices, many large-scale enterprises are accelerating their slaughtering processes to mitigate losses, resulting in a 3% increase in daily slaughter volumes post-holiday [6]. - The current market shows a decline in both the operating rates and slaughter volumes of sample enterprises, indicating insufficient consumer demand to absorb the increasing supply [6]. Future Market Outlook - The supply of live pigs remains excessive, and weak downstream demand is expected to keep prices under pressure, with short-term price fluctuations likely to continue [7]. - Seasonal demand may increase towards the end of the year, but the overall market is anticipated to maintain a trend of supply growth outpacing demand growth, with prices expected to remain low even during traditional peak seasons [7].