生猪期价止跌了！最新解读：现货压力未消 反弹持续性存疑

Core Viewpoint - The pig futures market experienced a strong rebound after a period of decline, with the main contract closing at 12,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.88%. This rebound is attributed to market sentiment recovery and stabilization of short-term spot prices, although fundamental pressures in the industry remain significant, potentially limiting future price increases [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts believe the recent price increase is due to the previous deep decline in pig futures prices, which left prices at relatively low levels. The stabilization in the spot market has led to bullish sentiment in the futures market [1]. - After the National Day holiday, spot prices for pigs dropped significantly, which stimulated terminal consumption and storage demand. Daily slaughter volumes have rebounded by 12% from post-holiday lows [2]. - The price gap between fat pigs and standard pigs continues to widen, and with decreasing temperatures, demand for fat pigs has increased. Additionally, there are expectations that large enterprises may reduce their slaughter volumes by the end of the month, which could boost short-term market expectations [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Projections - Since October, spot prices for pigs have continued to decline, with some regions falling below 11 yuan/kg, exerting ongoing pressure on futures prices. The overall industry is actively reducing weights, with the pig-to-grain ratio quickly dropping to around 5:1 [2]. - The third quarter saw a weakening in breeding profits, leading to increased enthusiasm for large pig sales and a release of holding risks. Recent prices for piglets have fallen below 180 yuan/head, resulting in further losses for self-breeding operations [2]. - Looking ahead, the agricultural sector lacks effective positive factors post-National Day, with spot prices in the feed and breeding industry primarily declining. The futures market is expected to maintain a weak near-term and strong long-term structure due to significant pressure on near-term spot prices [2]. - Current data indicates that the national pig inventory at the end of the third quarter was 43.68 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 986,000 heads (2.3%) and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.233 million heads (2.9%), suggesting a production increase in the fourth quarter [3].