杠杆警报！美股这个“狂热指标”已经超过了1999年和2007年

Core Insights - A key leverage indicator measuring the euphoria in the US stock market has surged to levels exceeding those seen during the 1999 internet bubble and the 2007 financial crisis, signaling significant warnings for risk assets [1] - Deutsche Bank's tracking of NYSE margin debt shows a 32.4% increase in investor leverage from the end of April to the end of September, marking one of the fastest rates of re-leveraging in history [2][3] Group 1: Leverage Surge - The market sentiment has shifted from healthy bullishness to irrational exuberance, evidenced by the rapid borrowing by investors to purchase stocks [2] - The current five-month increase in NYSE margin debt is only surpassed by the periods of early 2000 and the post-COVID stimulus rebound in 2020 [2][3] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that when margin debt growth exceeds 40% year-over-year, there is a significant risk of widening spreads in high-yield bonds over the next 6 to 12 months [5] - The current margin debt levels are approaching historical peaks relative to US nominal GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of this leverage [3][5] Group 3: Market Conditions - Unlike the stability observed in 2020-2021, which was supported by unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies, the current financial environment is characterized by negative fiscal impulses and declining bank reserves [5] - The extreme levels of leverage today, without substantial liquidity support, suggest that the risks may be more severe than generally perceived by the market [5]