OPEC+稳步释放产能 原油价格易跌难涨

Core Viewpoint - The global crude oil supply-demand structure is undergoing significant adjustments, with increasing supply and weak demand creating a contrasting scenario that is leading to a downward trend in oil prices [1][2][3][4] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ is shifting from a production cut strategy to a competitive "increase production to maintain market share" approach, with plans to increase output by 137,000 barrels per day in November, maintaining the same increase as in October [1][2] - Major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq are maintaining high export levels, with Saudi exports stable at 9 million barrels per day and Iraq at 4 million barrels per day, contributing to an overall surplus in the Middle East [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries, particularly in South America, are expanding production, with U.S. crude oil production reaching an average of 13.636 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 136,000 barrels per day, nearing historical highs [2] Demand Side Analysis - Demand for oil is weakening, particularly as the summer travel season ends, leading to a seasonal decline in refinery operations. U.S. refinery utilization dropped to 85.7%, a significant decrease of 6.7 percentage points week-on-week [3] - In Asia, China's main refineries are operating at a low rate of 73.48%, with Shandong's independent refineries at 54.95%, further suppressing crude oil processing demand and increasing refined oil inventory pressure [3] Pricing Dynamics - The pricing logic for domestic crude oil futures is shifting from a "cost + premium" model, reliant on geopolitical risk and OPEC+ cuts, to a "supply-demand + inventory" driven model, reflecting a stronger correlation with WTI and Brent prices [4] - Domestic refinery profit margins are narrowing, leading to reduced willingness to accept high-cost crude, which further suppresses the potential for price rebounds [4] - The recent weak performance of domestic crude oil futures is a natural outcome of the global supply-demand restructuring, with supply outpacing demand recovery and diminishing geopolitical risk impacts [4]