黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.10.21）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. government shutdown has heightened market anxiety, with the shutdown lasting 20 days and key economic data like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being delayed, which amplifies economic uncertainty and boosts safe-haven demand for gold [3]. - There is a strong expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with a 99% probability, and another cut anticipated in December, driven by potential economic weakness and trade tensions affecting inflation and growth [3]. - Ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite positive statements from President Trump, continue to support gold prices due to geopolitical risks [3]. - Global economic instability and geopolitical tensions, including developments in Japan and the Eurozone, as well as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold closed with a strong bullish candlestick, recovering from previous declines and indicating a clear bullish momentum, with the 5-day moving average providing solid support [5]. - The immediate resistance level is at 4381, where a failure to maintain above this level could indicate a potential double-top formation, while a successful breakout could lead to further upward movement towards the 4415-4419 resistance zone [5][8]. - Short-term support is identified around the 4280-4270 range, which is crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment; if prices stabilize here, it could present a buying opportunity [8].