燕京啤酒(000729)：U8高增对冲消费弱Β 多次分红强化安全边际

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated resilience in revenue growth and profitability despite a weak overall consumption environment, particularly through its flagship product U8, which continues to show strong growth potential [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.433 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.770 billion yuan, up 37.45% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 4.875 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.55% year-on-year growth, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 668 million yuan, a 26.00% increase year-on-year [1]. - The sales net profit margin in Q3 2025 improved by 2.79 percentage points to 16.17%, with the sales gross margin increasing by 2.16 percentage points to 50.15% [2]. Product Performance - The U8 product line has maintained a growth rate of 25%-30%, showcasing strong volume and price resilience despite a generally weak consumption environment [1]. - Sales volume for U8 in the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1.39% to 3.4952 million tons, with revenue per ton rising by 3.13% to 3,843.22 yuan/ton [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a series of strategic reforms under the leadership of Chairman Geng since 2022, focusing on revitalizing the brand and enhancing competitive strength [3]. - The company has initiated multiple dividend distributions, returning 282 million yuan to investors in the first three quarters, with expectations for a steady increase in cumulative dividend rates in 2025 and beyond [3]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a quality investment opportunity with both offensive and defensive characteristics, driven by product resilience and anticipated increases in dividend yield [3]. - Profit forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are updated to 1.602 billion, 1.911 billion, and 2.262 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].