7月11日至20日，第34届北京国际燕京啤酒文化节正在进行。冰爽啤酒、露天音乐、热辣撸串、星空露营，夏日狂欢已然开启。 为充分激发市场活力，推动文商旅体农深度融合，顺义区以第34届北京国际燕京啤酒文化节为契机，试点推出"票根经济"优惠活动，已联动啤酒节周边商圈 和城中心人气商圈200多家商户，覆盖餐饮、住宿、体育、景点、影院、零售等品类，票根优惠力度最大可达5折。 据了解，本届燕京啤酒节开幕5天时，顺义区便利用"票根经济"拉动餐饮、住宿、旅游等行业的消费增长，新增加消费人数3.5万余人次，带动经济消费186.5 万元。 "小票根"撬动"大消费"，"本次燕京啤酒节是顺义'票根经济'的一次尝试。"顺义区文促中心主任董雪梅于7月17日告诉记者，顺义区政府将继续优化提升服 务，充分调动经营主体的积极性，扩大票根联动范围，"用更精准、人性化的服务，让老百姓在文商旅体农融合消费过程中有更强的获得感。" 据BHGMall顺义金街店总经理王海泉介绍，包括六福珠宝在内，商场里目前已经有50余个品牌参与了本次的"票根经济"活动，品类以餐饮和零售为主，并 且，由于该活动对门店销售额的提升显著，参与"票根经济"活动的商户数量还在持续 ...

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Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly with the sentiment around high-end liquor brands improving as major companies stabilize their pricing strategies [5][7]. - The beer segment is experiencing marginal demand improvement, with cost reductions expected to enhance profit margins [5]. - The snack food sector is noted for its high growth potential, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on new product categories and channels to uncover alpha opportunities within the food and beverage industry [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.84% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [12]. - Notable performers included liquor and health products, which increased by 1.41% and 1.37%, respectively [12]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - As of July 13, 2025, the price of 2024 Flying Moutai (original) is 1950 CNY, down 150 CNY from the previous month [21]. - The beer production for May 2025 was 3.584 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [26]. - The average price of fresh milk is 3.04 CNY per kilogram, remaining stable for a month [28]. 3. Industry Dynamics - In June, liquor prices decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [53]. - The report notes a slight increase in the national white liquor price index in early July, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [54]. 4. Core Company Updates - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 40% to 50% [55]. - Wuliangye announced a cash dividend of 31.69 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 12.301 billion CNY [55].

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest institutional research in the past 30 days include Ice Wheel Environment, Huichuan Technology, Boshi Jie, Jun Ding Da, and Fuguang Co., Ltd. [2][9] - In the last five days, the most researched companies include Ice Wheel Environment, Yanjing Beer, Xingrong Environment, Ningbo Bank, and Superjet Co., Ltd. [2][9] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, five companies had ten or more rating agencies, namely Yanjing Beer, Huadian Electric, Huichuan Technology, Hangzhou Bank, and Kebo Da, with significant growth in net profit for 2024 compared to 2023 [2][9][11] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase in A-Share Companies - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, six companies announced significant shareholder increases, with two companies having ten or more rating agencies: Ruipu Biological and Hisense Home Appliances [3][12] - From January 1 to July 11, 2025, a total of 237 companies announced significant shareholder increases, with 64 companies having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 19 companies had an average proposed increase amount exceeding 1% of the latest market value [3][14] Group 3: A-Share Company Buyback Situation - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, 93 companies announced buyback progress, with 23 companies having ten or more rating agencies. Companies with a proposed buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value include Aohua Endoscopy, Shantui Co., Ltd., Wanrun Co., Ltd., and AVIC Heavy Machinery [3][16] - From January 1 to July 11, 2025, a total of 1,117 companies announced buyback progress, with 259 companies having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 93 companies had a proposed buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value [3][17] Group 4: Institutional Fund Flow - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, sectors such as electric power equipment, real estate, non-bank financials, steel, computer, building materials, beauty care, light industry manufacturing, retail, non-ferrous metals, and comprehensive industries received net inflows of institutional funds [21][23] - In the past 30 days, from June 11 to July 11, 2025, sectors such as real estate, non-bank financials, steel, building materials, light industry manufacturing, and food and beverage also received net inflows of institutional funds [21][23] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - For institutional research, it is recommended to pay attention to Yanjing Beer, Huadian Electric, Hangzhou Bank, and Kebo Da, which have high research intensity and significant growth in net profit for 2024 compared to 2023 [26] - For major shareholder increases, it is suggested to focus on New Energy, Tunnel Co., Ltd., Sailun Tire, and Wanrun Co., Ltd., which have significant proposed increase amounts relative to their market values [26] - For company buybacks, attention is drawn to companies with significant buyback amounts and those in the board proposal stage, including Changhong Meiling, Liugong, Shantui Co., Ltd., and others [26]

Group 1: Industry Performance - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer continue to maintain high growth rates significantly above industry levels in the first half of 2025 [1] - Zhujiang Beer expects a net profit of 575 million to 625 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% to 25% [2] - Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit between 1.061 billion and 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [3] Group 2: Company Updates - Moutai Group reported that both Moutai liquor and sauce-flavored liquor have completed their operational tasks for the first half of 2025 [4] - Jin Feng Wine Industry expects a net loss of 4.8 million to 7.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, although this represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [6] - ST Lanzhou Huanghe anticipates a loss of 10 million to 13 million yuan, with revenue declining due to intensified market competition [7] Group 3: New Product Launches and Strategies - Mountain City Beer launched its first craft beer, "Mountain City Secret Brew," at the 2025 Chongqing International Beer Culture Festival [9] - 1919 announced a new strategy to integrate wine and dining experiences through store upgrades and partnerships with local restaurants [11] - Water Well Square announced a halt on the sales of its "Zhen Niang Eight" product to address market circulation issues [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation within the industry, particularly in the liquor segment, where companies are actively seeking transformation amid market pressures. It emphasizes three main investment themes: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible companies benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang are expected to show strong profit growth, with Yanjing projected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a challenging half-year, with demand and policy impacts leading to a slowdown in sales. The report anticipates that the performance expectations for the mid-year and the entire year of 2025 have been largely adjusted [2]. - Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on service enhancement and transformation strategies to navigate the current market conditions. The report suggests that the upcoming month of September will be critical for assessing the impact of policies and consumer demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. Zhujiang Beer is also projected to see a profit increase of 15% to 25% [3]. - Eastroc Beverage is forecasted to generate revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33% to 42% year-on-year [3]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that companies like Youyou Foods and Miaokelando are expected to report significant profit increases, with Youyou Foods projecting a revenue growth of 40.91% to 50.77% [7]. - The overall consumer goods sector is highlighted as a space to watch for growth, particularly for companies that are innovating and expanding their market reach [7].

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行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 12 日 茅台完成半年经营任务 食品中期业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250707-20250711 《白酒批价暂稳 关注个股中报——食品饮 料行业周报 20250630-20250704》 2025/07/05 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王栗晴 (8621)23297818× wanglq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 绩分化 相关研究 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 ⚫ 投资分析意见： ...