研究报告 Research Report 27 Mar 2026 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费品 3 月价格报告：白酒批价跌多涨少，婴配粉外大众品均加大折扣 Wholesale prices of baijiu show more declines than gains, general consumer goods aside from infant formula are increasing discounts [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 27 日 白酒筑底，大众品关注成本传导 2026 年春糖反馈暨食品饮料最新观点 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈 2026 年春糖期间行业上市公司与渠道调研反馈。整体来看， 2026 年春糖参会企业与人员皆少于往年，企业重心由渠道流量抢夺更多转向用 户运营与培育。白酒板块动销分化加剧，批价企稳，经销商情绪谨慎但平和， 2026 年或将成为行业中考年，上半场重点关注酒企库存去化、渠道利润修复情 况，率先调整的企业 26H2 有望边际改善；下半场行业竞争将逐步从渠道向 C 端演进，更加关注消费者培育体系的搭建与完善，抢占下一轮周期先机。大众 品板块中，餐饮链 26Q1 明显改善、乳制品微增、饮料、零食量贩景气延续。 ❑ 风险提示：后续动销不及预期、价格表现不及预期、竞争加剧风险、成本上 升风险、渠道调研数据不能反映整体情况。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 142 | 2.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4452.0 | 4.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4242.1 ...

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 风险提示。宏观经济不及预期；消费力恢复不及预期；食品安全问题。 972918116公共联系人2026-03-25 13:58:42 1 / 11 [本报告联系人： Table_C ontacter] [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2026 年 3 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 | | | 2026 | | 春糖会反馈：行业磨底，期待改善 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 符蓉 | 分析师： 郝宇新 | | 分析师： 廖承帅 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120010 | SAC 执证号：S0260524070009 | | | SFC CE.no: BWC944 | | SFC CE.no: BVZ687 | | | | 021-38003552 | | 021-38003553 | 021-38003816 | | | furong@gf.com.c ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月24日 [相关研究 table_product] 1.政策利好需求复苏，把握行业修复 机 会 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2026/3/2-2026/3/8） 2.餐饮消费回暖，需求韧性凸显—— 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （ 2026/2/23- 2026/3/1） 3.预制菜国标推出，行业规范化里程 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 2026-03 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 碑——行业简评报告 [Table_NewTitle 通胀预期下关注 ] 涨价受益方向 ——食品饮料行业周报（2026/3/16-2026/3/22） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [4][35] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a steady expansion in domestic demand, with a 2.8% year-on-year growth in social retail sales for January and February 2026, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence and spending [4][35] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the consumption sector is at historically low levels, reflecting market expectations. With the implementation of more consumer-promoting policies, the sector is expected to see valuation recovery [4][35] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with good growth potential and low valuations within the sector [4][35] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - From March 9 to March 20, 2026, the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index had a slight increase of 0.09%, ranking 6th among Shenwan's primary industries. The sub-industry performance varied, with meat products (+2.11%) and liquor (+1.12%) showing positive growth, while snacks (-5.59%) and prepared foods (-8.47%) faced declines [4][34] Industry News - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a significant impact from the extended Spring Festival holiday on domestic demand, with a notable increase in consumer confidence and retail sales growth [27][35] - The report mentions the trend of younger consumers (ages 18-30) driving the growth of lower-priced liquor, with 43% of liquor sales being below 300 yuan [28][30] Key Company Announcements - Wanchen Group reported a revenue of 51.459 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.17%, with a significant expansion in its store network [37] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 3.4%, indicating challenges in the competitive liquor market [36] Focus on Key Companies - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye in the high-end liquor segment, suggesting they are resilient amid market adjustments [36][37] - It also highlights the potential in the dairy sector, particularly for companies like Yili and New Dairy, which may benefit from favorable cycles in raw milk and beef [37]

证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月社零总额同比增长 2.8%，国内需求稳步扩大 ——食品饮料行业双周报 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《茅台发布《市场化运营方案》，大众品 关注细分板块龙头 —食品饮料行业观 点更新报告》2026.01.22 《低位蓄能，向新破局—食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略报告》2025.12.28 《白酒筑底，关注餐饮链复苏—食品饮 料行业周报》2025.12.02 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2026 年 03 月 09 日-03 月 20 日，申万食品饮料指数涨跌幅为 +0.09%，在申万一级行业中排名第 6 位，全部子行业涨跌幅分别 为，肉制品（+2.11%）、白酒（+1.12%）、调味品（+0.03%）、啤 酒（-0.38%）、乳品（-1.43%）、保健品（-2.65%）、软饮料（-3.21%）、 零食（-5.59%）、其他酒类（-6.02%）、烘焙食品（-6.46%）、预加 工食品（-8.47%）、熟食（-1 ...

1-2 月社零总额同比增长 2.8%，国内需求稳步扩大 ——食品饮料行业双周报 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《茅台发布《市场化运营方案》，大众品 关注细分板块龙头 —食品饮料行业观 点更新报告》2026.01.22 《低位蓄能，向新破局—食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略报告》2025.12.28 《白酒筑底，关注餐饮链复苏—食品饮 料行业周报》2025.12.02 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 23 日 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2026 年 03 月 09 日-03 月 20 日，申万食品饮料指数涨跌幅为 +0.09%，在申万一级行业中排名第 6 位，全部子行业涨跌幅分别 为，肉制品（+2.11%）、白酒（+1.12%）、调味品（+0.03%）、啤 酒（-0.38%）、乳品（-1.43%）、保健品（-2.65%）、软饮料（-3.21%）、 零食（-5.59%）、其他酒类（-6.02%）、烘焙食品（-6.46%）、预加 工食品（- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer has been slower in its premiumization process compared to other leading beer companies, but recent strategic actions aim to enhance operational efficiency and product structure, which could lead to improved profitability [4][6][18]. Group 1: Premiumization and Product Structure - Yanjing Beer launched its premium products U8 and V10 in 2019-2020, while competitors like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer had already introduced their premium products earlier [4]. - The company has initiated a "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" strategy since 2022, focusing on streamlining its product offerings and improving operational efficiency [4][18]. - The premiumization strategy is expected to enhance gross margins, as the gross margin of mid-to-high-end products like U8 is significantly higher than that of lower-tier products [21]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Efficiency - In 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved revenue of 14.67 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 40.72%, while Qingdao Beer had a revenue of 32.14 billion yuan and a gross margin of 40.23% [12][11]. - Yanjing's management expense ratio is higher than that of its peers, which contributes to its lower net profit margin despite a higher gross margin [6][11]. - The company has seen improvements in operational efficiency, with a production capacity utilization rate of 65.4% in 2024, compared to Qingdao Beer’s 79.5% [16][18]. Group 3: Taxation and Profitability - Yanjing Beer benefits from a reduced corporate tax rate of 15% for some subsidiaries due to high-tech enterprise qualifications and tax incentives [8]. - The increase in the proportion of higher-priced products like U8 is expected to lower the effective tax rate, further enhancing profitability [21]. - The company anticipates that by 2028, U8 could account for 30% of total sales, contributing approximately 7.4 billion yuan in revenue, significantly boosting overall profitability [22][23].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the raw materials price trends and their implications for consumer stocks in Hong Kong and China, particularly focusing on the food and beverage sectors [1][7]. Key Companies and Their Insights Yili (600887.SS) and Mengniu (2319.HK) - Raw milk prices have started to stabilize in 2026, leading to more balanced supply-demand dynamics [2]. - A significant reduction in provisions for inventory is expected, which should positively impact net profit margins (NPM) [2]. Angel Yeast (600298.SS) - Molasses prices have trended down more than anticipated, which could provide upside risk to market earnings expectations if the average selling price (ASP) can be maintained [3]. Hengan (1044.HK) - Pulp prices increased in October 2024 but dropped quickly from May 2025, potentially relieving margin pressure on the tissue business [3]. Tingyi (0322.HK) and Uni-President China (0220.HK) - Beverage segment margins are under pressure due to steady sugar prices and rising PET prices linked to increasing oil prices [4]. - Noodle segment margins are negatively affected by a spike in palm oil prices in 3Q25 [4]. Want Want (0151.HK) - Milk powder prices continue to decline in 2026, leading to raw material cost headwinds [5]. - Plans to offset cost pressures include substituting milk powder for raw milk and improving efficiency, which requires close monitoring [5]. Beer Companies (e.g., Tsingtao) - Beer companies may face challenges from rising aluminum prices in 2026 [6]. Raw Material Price Trends - **Hog Prices**: As of February 26, 2026, hog prices were Rmb12.6/kg, down 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) [17]. - **Pork Prices**: Retail pork prices increased by 1.4% MoM, while wholesale prices rose by 0.2% MoM [17]. - **Sugar Prices**: Remained flat MoM in February 2026, with a 10% decrease year-to-date [17]. - **Milk Powder Prices**: Average whole milk auction price increased by 8% MoM but is down 6% year-over-year [18]. - **PET Prices**: Increased by 2.9% MoM in February 2026, but down 7% year-to-date [20]. - **Soybean Crush Margin**: Industry gross margin decreased by 24% MoM in February 2026 [16]. Market Dynamics - The competitive dynamics in the beverage industry are crucial for margin trends, particularly for Tingyi and Uni-President China [4]. - The stabilization of raw milk prices is expected to benefit companies like Yili and Mengniu, while cost pressures remain a concern for Want Want [2][5]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the importance of raw material price trends and their direct impact on the financial performance of key consumer companies in the Hong Kong and China markets. The stabilization of certain prices, such as raw milk, presents opportunities, while rising costs in other areas, like aluminum and palm oil, pose risks to margins. Monitoring these trends will be essential for investors looking to navigate the consumer sector effectively.