基础概念

Core Insights - The introduction of monthly average futures for LLDPE, PVC, and PP on October 28 aims to enhance risk management tools in the chemical industry, stabilize supply chains, and improve China's influence on plastic pricing [1] Group 1: Monthly Average Futures Overview - The monthly average futures contracts for LLDPE, PVC, and PP are based on the monthly settlement prices of corresponding physical delivery futures, with cash settlement upon expiration [1] - These contracts provide a risk management tool tailored for "average price trading" on a monthly basis, leveraging the fair prices of existing physical delivery futures [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Situation - China is the largest producer and consumer of plastics globally, with projected capacities for 2024 being 35.71 million tons for polyethylene, 27.54 million tons for PVC, and 46.76 million tons for polypropylene [2] - The production volumes for 2024 are expected to be 27.91 million tons for polyethylene, 23.44 million tons for PVC, and 34.76 million tons for polypropylene, while consumption is projected at 40.94 million tons, 20.89 million tons, and 35.73 million tons respectively [2] - China's plastic exports have been increasing, with PVC exports rising from 63000 tons in 2020 to 262000 tons in 2024, and polypropylene exports increasing from 43000 tons to 235000 tons in the same period [2] Group 3: Rationale for Launching Monthly Average Futures - The launch of these futures is a response to the oversupply in the plastic industry and increasing exports, catering to the refined and diversified risk management needs of industry enterprises [2] - These futures will provide smoother price references and enrich the futures market toolset, enhancing China's pricing influence in the plastic sector [2] Group 4: International Precedents - The introduction of monthly average futures is not unprecedented, as CME launched WTI crude oil monthly average futures in 2006, followed by several international exchanges adopting similar products [3] - Monthly average futures have become essential tools in major international futures exchanges over the years [3]