日本货币政策转向在即？政策利率调整或重塑亚洲金融格局

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a fundamental shift in its long-standing low inflation environment, with policy member Takeda Sho stating that the price stability target has "essentially been achieved" and that the timing for raising policy rates is now appropriate [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan has consistently exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for 39 consecutive months, indicating a shift from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand, which is weakening the traditional perception of "deflationary inertia" [3][7] - Market expectations regarding the BOJ's policy direction have become polarized, with a significant drop in the probability of a rate hike to 24% ahead of the October 30 meeting, reflecting the complexities of decision-making influenced by political and economic factors [1][3] Economic Context - The recent rise in inflation data has become the central basis for potential policy adjustments, contrasting with Japan's previous reliance on export-led growth [3][7] - The yen's continued weakness following the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September is interpreted as a sign of increased independence in Japan's monetary policy, providing room for potential adjustments [3] - The Tokyo stock market has shown volatility, with the Nikkei 225 index testing key resistance levels amid fluctuating policy expectations, indicating investor sensitivity to liquidity contraction [3] Policy Challenges - The BOJ faces challenges in balancing sustainable economic recovery with financial stability, as indicated by its cautious approach to tapering bond purchases [7] - The potential initiation of a tightening cycle could exacerbate cross-border capital flow volatility, especially given the current divergence in policy cycles among major economies [7] - Regardless of the outcome of the October meeting, the BOJ's reduced tolerance for inflation marks a significant shift that will test the adaptability of Asian financial markets in the context of diverging monetary policies [7]