特朗普干预下美联储政策将出现哪些变化？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, and the implications for the Fed's independence and future monetary policy direction [1][2][3]. Group A: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration has intensified its pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding immediate interest rate cuts and criticizing Powell's cautious approach [3][4]. - Following unsuccessful verbal attacks on Powell, Trump shifted focus to personnel changes within the Fed, aiming to reshape its leadership by targeting other board members [3][4][5]. Group B: Changes in Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump's intervention began with the unexpected resignation of Fed Governor Kugar, which opened the door for Trump to nominate his ally, Milan, to fill the vacancy [4]. - The subsequent targeting of Fed Governor Cook, including criminal allegations against him, illustrates Trump's strategy to exert control over the Fed's board [4][5]. - Trump's public categorization of Fed board members into "Trump" and "Biden" camps indicates a clear intent to influence the Fed's decision-making structure [5]. Group C: Federal Reserve's Power Structure - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is primarily conducted by the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Board being the key decision-making body [7][9]. - The Board consists of seven governors, and its decisions significantly influence monetary policy, banking regulation, and financial stability [9][10]. - The FOMC, which includes both Board members and regional Fed presidents, has the authority to set interest rates and conduct open market operations [8][9]. Group D: Potential Policy Changes - If Trump successfully controls the Fed's board, significant policy shifts could occur, including rapid interest rate cuts and expansion of the Fed's balance sheet to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds [15][16]. - Trump's desire for a 3% interest rate cut reflects a broader strategy to stimulate the economy, with expectations of at least 150 basis points of cuts in the near term [16][17]. - The potential for a more accommodative monetary policy could lead to increased financial market activity but may also raise systemic risks in the long term [18][19].