双轨并行，中国碳市场十年演进：从试点到覆盖60%碳排放

Core Insights - The article discusses the development and significance of China's carbon market, which has become the largest in the world, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions [2][24] - It highlights the transition from pilot programs in select cities to a national market, emphasizing the importance of regulatory frameworks and technological integration [4][7][10] Summary by Sections Development of Carbon Market - China initiated its carbon market with pilot programs in 2011 in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which later provided valuable insights for the national market [4][5] - The national carbon market officially launched on July 16, 2021, initially including 2,162 power generation companies, covering approximately 4.5 billion tons of carbon emissions [5][7] Market Expansion and Performance - By 2025, the market is expected to expand to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, adding around 2.5 billion tons of emissions to its coverage [7] - As of August 2025, the carbon market has traded nearly 700 million tons of allowances, with a transaction value exceeding 47.4 billion [8][10] Pricing and Impact on Emissions - The average carbon price in 2024 has increased significantly compared to 2021, with reduced volatility indicating growing confidence in the market [10] - Companies within the carbon market have shown a notable reduction in emission intensity, with their carbon emissions per unit of GDP being lower than non-participating firms [10] Future Goals and Regulatory Framework - The central government has set clear targets for the carbon market, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and a mixed allocation system by 2030 [13][14] - The transition from intensity-based allocation to total emissions control is planned, with a gradual increase in auctioned allowances [16][17] Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Current issues include excessive administrative intervention in allowance distribution, lack of financial instruments like carbon futures, and inconsistent data standards across regions [21][22] - Effective regulation requires collaboration among various departments to ensure funds are directed towards green initiatives and to prevent market manipulation [22] Future Developments - Plans for introducing carbon futures and establishing market makers are in place, with potential for alignment with the EU carbon market [24] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and participating in the carbon market for all stakeholders, as it plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality goals [25][27]