金价重返4300美元，黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超2.4%，近20日净流入超55亿元

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have returned to $4,300, with the gold ETF (518800) rising over 2.4% and a net inflow of over 5.5 billion yuan in the past 20 days, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. government shutdowns and political polarization [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown reflects long-term issues of political polarization and fiscal sustainability, which may continue to disrupt the market [1] - The ongoing government shutdown and political deadlock are gradually eroding the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The trend of central bank gold purchases continues, with China's central bank reporting a gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces at the end of September, an increase of approximately 40,000 ounces month-over-month, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - China's central bank is actively promoting diversification of international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold reserves [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The backdrop of excessive money supply and monetization of fiscal deficits is challenging the dollar's credit system [1] - Global geopolitical instability is driving the demand for diversified asset reserves, with gold being favored as a safe asset [1] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that factors such as the Federal Reserve potentially entering a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization will provide support for gold prices [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Short-term volatility in gold prices may pose a risk of correction, and investors are advised to avoid chasing short-term highs while focusing on long-term investment value [1] - Recommended investment options include the gold ETF (518800) with over 27 billion yuan in size, which directly invests in physical gold, and the gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1]