美联储 10 月降息近定局？97.8% 概率背后：就业疲软成关键推手，全球资产格局将生变

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 29-30, driven by a weak labor market and data gaps caused by the government shutdown, with market expectations for this cut reaching 97.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2]. - The absence of official data has paradoxically reinforced the likelihood of a rate cut, as the Fed may prefer to act preemptively to mitigate further deterioration in the job market [2]. - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, with the duration of unemployment increasing to 24.5 weeks, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is still above the Fed's 2% target, currently at 2.9%, creating internal divisions within the Fed regarding the appropriateness of further rate cuts [4]. - Some Fed officials express concerns about the potential for inflationary pressures to persist, complicating the decision to lower rates further [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of a rate cut has led to a weakening of the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index dropping to 93.2, while commodities like gold and oil have seen price increases [5]. - The technology and renewable energy sectors have outperformed in the stock market, benefiting from the expected liquidity boost from potential rate cuts [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that the Fed may implement a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, with expectations for another 25 basis point cut in December following the October meeting [6]. - The Fed's shift from prioritizing anti-inflation measures to balancing growth and employment will influence global financial markets, particularly affecting the dynamics of the U.S. dollar and various asset classes [6].