邓正红能源软实力：供应过剩场景预期 能源需求减弱担忧 国际油价困乏小幅走低

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current oversupply situation in the international oil market, driven by economic slowdown concerns due to international trade tensions and reduced energy demand, leading to a slight decline in oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October 20, international oil prices showed a slight decrease, with WTI crude oil settling at $57.52 per barrel, down 0.03%, and Brent crude at $61.01 per barrel, down 0.46% [1] - Evidence of anticipated oversupply is becoming more apparent, with WTI prices remaining stable as traders engage in rollovers ahead of the November contract expiration [1] - Major institutions predict that the influx of supply will continue into next year, with crude oil futures having dropped over 20% from summer highs [1][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about a potential agreement between two major oil-consuming countries, but this has had limited positive impact on the market due to rising tanker volumes, indicating oversupply [1] - The geopolitical triangle involving the U.S., India, and Russia is highlighted, with Trump warning India against purchasing Russian oil, which could lead to significant tariffs [3] Group 3: Theoretical Framework - The article introduces the concept of "soft power" in the context of the oil market, suggesting that the current oversupply and price volatility reflect a dynamic interplay between "rule power" and "material power" within the global energy governance system [2] - The OPEC's transition from a traditional production controller to a technical standard setter and geopolitical coordinator is emphasized, aiming to reshape market expectations while avoiding price shocks [2][4] Group 4: Future Strategies - Recommendations for OPEC include moving from simple production control to more complex market regulation mechanisms, establishing "soft power reserves" and "expectation buffers" [4] - The need for value reconstruction through innovations such as low-carbon oil certification and financial tools like oil transactions in RMB is discussed [4] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of managing alliances and coordinating production policies with non-traditional allies like Russia to create a more inclusive global energy governance framework [4]