有色金属投资，关注三大主线

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the global non-ferrous metals market are driven by the evolving US-China trade relations and tariff policies, but the fundamental drivers of the industry remain unchanged [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global supply chain is undergoing restructuring, with increasing "resource nationalism" leading to supply constraints for key minerals like copper and rare earths [2][3] - The competition for resources is intensifying due to strategic industries such as AI, new energy, and semiconductors, which are resource-intensive [2] - Supply-side constraints are exacerbated by insufficient capital expenditure in mining over the past decade and geopolitical tensions affecting key mineral exports [2][3] - The cobalt market is expected to shift from surplus to shortage by 2025, while Chile's copper production forecasts have been downgraded, further tightening supply [2] Group 2: Structural Changes in Demand - Demand is becoming more strategic and rigid, driven by technology and manufacturing rather than traditional real estate cycles [3] - Countries are motivated to stockpile resources even at high prices to ensure supply chain security, with the US planning significant tungsten purchases in the coming fiscal years [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and enhance the purchasing power of metal prices [4] - Major economies are entering a fiscal expansion phase, with significant government investments expected to drive demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a substantial increase in global copper demand for defense purposes by 2030, reflecting the tangible impact of fiscal policies on metal demand [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold is viewed as a "credit anchor" amid geopolitical tensions and high sovereign debt, with central banks expected to increase their gold reserves significantly by 2025 [7] - Copper is identified as a cornerstone for energy transition and AI revolution, with demand expected to surge while supply remains constrained [8] - Small metals like cobalt and rare earths are positioned as strategic assets, with potential price increases due to supply restrictions and geopolitical factors [9] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current volatility in the non-ferrous metals sector is seen as a pause in a bull market, with underlying logic intact and opportunities still present [10] - Patience is advised for investors, as the majority of companies in the non-ferrous sector are expected to remain profitable by 2025 [11] - A diversified approach is recommended for investing in small metals, while maintaining a focus on gold and copper during market fluctuations [12]