Economic Overview - The national economy is operating smoothly, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1] Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market continues to decline, with significant year-on-year decreases in both development investment and sales. Specifically, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 5.5%, and sales revenue decreased by 7.9% [2][3] - In the context of inventory reduction, the supply of new homes has constrained sales further in the second half of the year, but a moderate year-on-year adjustment is not overly concerning as it indicates a stable supply-demand relationship [2] - Positive signals include a month-on-month increase in new home transactions in September and a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices across various cities [2][4] Sales and Transactions - In September, new home sales area reached 8,531 million square meters, and sales revenue was 8,025 billion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of 49% and 43% respectively [4] - The cumulative sales area for the first three quarters was 65,835 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [3] Financing and Inventory - In September, personal mortgage loans amounted to 1,027 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the decline has narrowed [6] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 2.92 million square meters in September, continuing a seven-month downward trend, indicating easing inventory pressure [6] Price Trends - In September, eight cities saw a year-on-year increase in new home prices, the highest number this year, with cities like Nanning and Yichang experiencing price increases [8] - The year-on-year decline in housing prices is narrowing, with first-tier cities seeing a reduction of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] Construction and Investment - New construction area in the first three quarters was 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, but September saw a smaller year-on-year decline of 14.4% [11] - The total real estate development investment for the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down 13.9%, with September's investment at 7,397 billion yuan, a decline of 21.3% [17] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize by the fourth quarter of 2024, with pent-up housing demand being released and inventory pressures becoming more pronounced [2][20] - The current investment scale in real estate development has significant room for downward adjustment, as the sales-to-investment ratio remains below 1.05 since 2022 [17][20]
国家统计局最新数据出炉，这些积极信号值得关注
3 6 Ke·2025-10-21 02:38