人民币汇率中间价创阶段性高点

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, with the RMB middle rate reaching a new high since October 2024, indicating a potential long-term appreciation cycle [1][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On October 21, the RMB to USD middle rate was reported at 7.0930, an increase of 43 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB middle rate has risen above the 7.10 mark for five consecutive trading days since October 15, marking a significant upward trend [1]. - The RMB middle rate has shown an overall increase of over 900 points throughout the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by a decline in the US dollar and increased external market volatility, which has led to a stronger adjustment of the RMB middle rate [3]. - The US government shutdown has heightened financial market uncertainty, accelerating capital flows from the US to non-US countries [3]. - Internal factors such as the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and improved market competition have provided fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a self-directed monetary policy that balances internal and external factors, maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the current RMB appreciation is primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, which may continue to influence the RMB's strength in the near term [4]. - Despite optimism regarding the RMB's long-term trajectory, experts believe that exchange rate stability will remain the main theme, with dual-direction fluctuations becoming the norm [5].