猪价“跌跌不休”，生猪养殖业陷入全面亏损，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）近7个交易日获资金连续净流入近1.5亿元

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in pig prices has led to significant losses in the pig farming industry, with many farmers facing financial distress as prices fall below production costs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average purchase price for live pigs from designated slaughterhouses was 13.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.0% week-on-week and 29.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average ex-factory price for pork was 17.58 yuan/kg, down 2.7% week-on-week and 28.5% year-on-year [1]. - On October 20, the price for live pigs (external three yuan) was 11.18 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 35.41%, falling below the cost line of 13-14 yuan/kg for most farming entities [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The continuous drop in pig prices has resulted in comprehensive losses for the pig farming industry, with major companies like Muyuan Foods reporting a September average selling price of 12.88 yuan/kg, down 30.94% year-on-year, and a sales revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, down 22.46% year-on-year [1]. - Small and medium-sized farmers are increasingly at risk of financial collapse, with losses per pig reaching over 50 yuan for self-bred pigs and approximately 150 yuan for those purchasing piglets for fattening [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts from Guojin Securities noted that the rapid decline in pig prices has created a negative sentiment, although there has been a slight rebound due to secondary fattening [2]. - The average weight of pigs at market release remains high at 128.25 kg, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly decreased despite falling prices [2]. - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further potential price declines [2]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a focus on the potential for capacity reduction in the industry, which may create low-entry opportunities for leading pig farming companies as the market adjusts [2]. - Recent data indicates a net inflow of over 16.38 million yuan into the livestock farming ETF (516670), with a total net inflow of nearly 150 million yuan over the past seven trading days [2]. Group 5: ETF Overview - The livestock farming ETF (516670) closely tracks the China Securities Livestock Farming Index, covering approximately 60% of the weight of stocks related to pig farming, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3]. - The ETF also encompasses upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed, as well as poultry and aquaculture [3]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.2% per year, which is lower than the typical 0.5% for similar index products [3].