中国：第十五次五年计划展望

Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), emphasizing its significance compared to previous plans, particularly in light of the challenges faced during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) [1][2][5]. Economic Performance and Challenges - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's average GDP growth rate was approximately 5.4%, with a notable 44% increase in export value [1][12][13]. - The economy faced long-term impacts from COVID-19 measures, a persistent downturn in the real estate market, and issues related to income and wealth inequality [1][2][17]. - The real estate market has seen significant declines in new home sales and construction, with sales volume dropping by 73.1% from 2021 to 2025 [40][41]. 15th Five-Year Plan Focus - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to prioritize economic resilience, national security, and social inclusivity over specific growth targets, with projected growth rates of around 4.5% in 2026, gradually decreasing to about 4% by 2030 [2][8][52]. - Investment will be directed towards sectors like semiconductors and aluminum to promote technological self-sufficiency, alongside efforts to clean up real estate market debts and reform social welfare systems [2][8][52]. Global Market Dynamics - China is transitioning from low-end labor-intensive exports to high-tech capital-intensive products, which may intensify global market competition and alter geopolitical dynamics [2][7][24]. - The report highlights the potential for a "Second China Shock," characterized by increased exports of advanced technology products, which could lead to heightened trade tensions with major economies like the US and EU [2][7][24]. Socioeconomic Issues - Income and wealth inequality remain pressing concerns, with significant disparities in pension benefits and rising youth unemployment exacerbating social tensions [1][2][51]. - The aging population and declining birth rates pose challenges for labor supply and consumer demand, necessitating reforms in retirement and social welfare systems [45][46]. Conclusion - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on achieving sustainable and inclusive growth while addressing the multifaceted challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, economic restructuring, and social inequality [2][52][53].