Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-21 03:38Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its total gaming revenue forecast for Macau in 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - Total gaming revenue is expected to grow by 9% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, reaching 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - Mass gaming revenue is projected to increase by 7% and 6% in the next two years, recovering to 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 19% in 2025 but decline by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Group 2: Industry EBITDA - The industry EBITDA for the third quarter is expected to reach $2.108 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, recovering to 91% of the 2019 level [1] - Total gaming revenue remains resilient; however, increased market competition and rising reinvestment rates are expected to pressure EBITDA [1] Group 3: Company Outlook - CICC is optimistic about MGM China (02282) and Sands China (01928), forecasting adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter to be HKD 2.352 billion and USD 590 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% and 1% respectively [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, both rated as "outperform the industry" [1]