现在卖掉房子，是愚蠢还是明智？王健林一语道破，明白了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese real estate market, highlighting the challenges and potential strategies for property owners amidst a significant market downturn. It emphasizes the foresight of Wang Jianlin, who sold off assets in anticipation of market risks, and suggests that selling excess properties now may be a wise decision given the market conditions [1][3]. Market Trends - In 2023, the national sales area of commercial housing in China was approximately 1.117 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, marking the lowest level since 2012. The sales revenue was about 11.66 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, the lowest since 2016 [1]. - The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities has been declining for 10 consecutive months, indicating a widespread drop in property values [1]. Government Response - In response to the ongoing downturn, local governments have implemented various measures to stimulate the market, including lowering mortgage rates to below 4% and lifting purchase restrictions. Additionally, the central government has introduced major projects, including urban village renovations, which may temporarily stabilize housing prices by increasing demand from displaced residents [1]. Market Saturation - Wang Jianlin pointed out that the real estate market in China has reached a saturation point after over 20 years of rapid development since the housing reform in 1998. The current housing supply and purchasing power have peaked, leading to a likely decline in property prices as both residents and developers reduce leverage [4][6]. Excess Supply - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that China has 600 million residential units, which could accommodate 3 billion people if each unit housed five individuals. This oversupply has become apparent as the market shifts from speculation to a focus on housing for living, indicating a high probability of future price declines [6]. Income Constraints - The purchasing power of the general public has been severely impacted by the pandemic, with many experiencing reduced incomes or unemployment. This has led to a more cautious approach to home buying, suggesting that property prices will likely stabilize with a downward trend [7]. Debt Levels - Since the first round of housing reform began in 1998, the debt levels of Chinese residents have surged from 5% to 71.5%, limiting the potential for further leverage. This context supports the argument that selling excess properties now may be a more prudent choice [7].