储能企业的电芯之困

Core Insights - The battery cell shortage is currently the biggest bottleneck for the energy storage industry, affecting production and cash flow for many companies [1][2][3] - The average delivery time for energy storage battery cells has increased significantly, from 30 days to 75 days, leading to production cuts and even shutdowns for some small and medium-sized enterprises [1][2][3] - The energy storage market is experiencing a price war, with lithium battery storage system prices dropping nearly 80% over the past three years, resulting in widespread losses across the industry [3][4][5] Industry Challenges - The rapid growth in energy storage demand, driven by policy initiatives, has outpaced battery cell production capacity, leading to supply shortages [4][5] - Companies are increasingly adopting "split order procurement" strategies to mitigate supply risks, which has raised procurement costs by over 20% [7][16] - The financial strain is evident, with many companies facing negative cash flow and high debt levels, as the average asset-liability ratio for listed energy storage companies reached 65.3% in the first half of 2025 [23][24] Market Dynamics - The secondary market for battery cells has rapidly developed, with a projected 5GWh of battery cells expected to circulate through this market by September 2025, accounting for over 15% of total demand [20] - Price discrepancies are prevalent, with battery cell prices rising while energy storage system sales prices have fallen, leading to a profit distribution imbalance within the industry [18][19] - Major players like CATL are expanding production capacity significantly, while smaller companies struggle to secure stable supplies, exacerbating competitive disadvantages [17][24] Strategic Responses - Companies are exploring vertical integration to secure supply chains, with some investing in battery cell production and lithium resource acquisition [24][26] - Many firms are narrowing their focus to higher-margin projects and reducing the number of ongoing projects to ensure survival [25][26] - The industry is expected to face supply challenges for at least 6 to 12 months, but improvements may occur post-2026 as new capacities and technologies mature [25][26]