Group 1 - The U.S. EPA proposed reallocating 100%, 50%, 0%, 25%, and 75% of the small refinery exemption volumes for 2023-2025 to the 2026-2027 biofuel blending obligations, but the final announcement is likely delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown [1] - Malaysia's MPOB report released on October 10 indicated a slight decrease in palm oil production to 1.8412 million tons in September, while exports increased to 1.4276 million tons, leading to a significant rise in palm oil inventory to 2.3610 million tons [1] - The SPPOMA data shows a 6.86% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil production for the first half of October, while the ITS data indicates a 3.4% increase in palm oil exports for the same period [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 3.02% in August, with expectations of rising inventories during the production cycle [2] - Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15% to support the transition to the B50 biodiesel program, which is expected to reduce palm oil export volumes [2] - China has implemented temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola, but has resumed purchasing Australian canola, with 590,000 tons expected to arrive by December [2] Group 3 - The U.S. biodiesel policy announcement is expected to have a limited negative impact, while Indonesia's B50 progress is seen as a long-term positive for palm oil, leading to a bullish outlook for oils in the medium to long term [3] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October, and the U.S. biodiesel policy has not yet been finalized, making significant short-term price increases unlikely [3] - It is recommended to wait for signs of inventory reduction in palm oil and the finalization of the U.S. biodiesel policy before taking long positions [3]
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Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang·2025-10-21 05:25