Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-21 05:30Core Viewpoint - The new Hainan duty-free policy, effective from November 1, 2025, represents the most significant adjustment since the 2020 policy, expanding the consumer base and product categories for China Duty Free Group (CDFG) [1][4][10] Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy allows "departing and outbound travelers" to shop at duty-free stores, broadening the market to include international travelers [4] - The number of duty-free product categories has increased from 45 to 47, adding pet supplies and portable musical instruments, while also allowing domestic products to be sold duty-free [4][10] - Shopping experience improvements include unlimited purchases for island residents and raising the shopping age from 16 to 18 [4] Group 2: Market Performance - During the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, duty-free sales in Hainan reached 944 million yuan, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, with an average spending of 7,685 yuan per person, up 10% [5] - The new policy is expected to further enhance this growth momentum [5] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - CDFG's supply chain is a significant competitive advantage, with a procurement scale of 54 billion yuan in 2024, allowing for a 15%-20% price advantage over competitors [6] - CDFG holds eight national duty-free licenses and has a market share of 78% in Hainan, with over 1,500 brand partnerships [6] - The company is optimizing its channel layout, with new stores opening in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, achieving over 50 million yuan in sales in the first month [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Despite policy benefits, CDFG faces uncertainties in consumer recovery, with a 26.2% year-on-year decline in shopping numbers in Hainan in the first half of 2025 [8] - Increased competition from new players like Wangfujing and Hainan Tourism Development, leading to a slight decrease in market share from 68% to 65% [8] - The transition in business structure is causing short-term pain, with a 21.5% year-on-year decline in taxable revenue in the first half of 2025 [8] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The full closure of Hainan is set for December 18, 2025, with predictions that the tourism retail market could reach 250 billion yuan by 2030, potentially generating over 200 billion yuan in sales for CDFG [10] - CDFG is expanding its global footprint, with plans to enter markets in Thailand and Malaysia, aiming for overseas revenue to contribute over 30 billion yuan by 2030 [10]