未来5年后，房子是贵如黄金还是便宜如葱？曹德旺20字说清楚

Core Insights - The future of the real estate market in China is uncertain, with contrasting views on whether properties will become "as expensive as gold" or "as cheap as green onions" in five years [1][6]. Market Trends - Since 2023, the Chinese real estate market has entered a deep adjustment phase, with both sales volume and area declining. By February 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities had decreased for 22 consecutive months, reaching 15,173 yuan per square meter [3]. - In the second-hand housing market, 99 cities experienced a month-on-month price drop, with only Sanya showing a slight increase. The number of cities with falling prices has exceeded 90 for nine consecutive months [3]. Government Policies - In response to the downturn, the government has implemented unprecedented measures to stimulate the market, including lowering mortgage rates, reducing down payment ratios, and increasing public housing loan limits. Many cities have lifted purchase and sale restrictions, including major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [5]. Future Outlook - There is a heated debate regarding future property prices. Some believe that history will repeat itself, citing the 2014-2015 market rebound, while others argue that prices will eventually return to a rational level due to the disconnect between property prices and average household income [6]. - The disparity between property owners and non-owners is a critical factor influencing future market dynamics. The real estate market has shifted from a state of scarcity to one of serious oversupply, with a significant portion of properties held by a few investors, leaving many families unable to purchase homes [8]. - As the market becomes more of an investment tool rather than a living space, any adjustments will lead to increased selling pressure from speculators, contributing to a downward trend in prices that aligns more closely with residents' income levels [8].