难圆其说！“贬值交易”炒作或已见顶？

Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in gold, cryptocurrencies, and stock markets have sparked discussions about a "devaluation trade" in the dollar, while the bond and foreign exchange markets show contrasting trends [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have surged by 50%, with other precious metals like silver and platinum also experiencing significant increases, indicating investor anxiety about certain risks [1] - The 10-year U.S. nominal Treasury yield fell below 4%, marking its lowest level since April, and has decreased nearly 60 basis points this year [2] - The 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.275%, the lowest since June, while the 30-year TIPS rate fell to 2.21%, a new low since May [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about devaluation, there is no evidence of a mass sell-off of the dollar or U.S. Treasuries, as indicated by the stability in the dollar index and its performance against other G10 currencies [4][6] - Approximately 80% of the portfolio funds flowing into the U.S. are hedged against currency risk, reflecting increased skepticism about the dollar's reliability [6] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Concerns about fiat currency devaluation, particularly regarding the dollar, have intensified since the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the 2020-2021 pandemic, exacerbated by unconventional policies [8] - The current market situation may be influenced by multiple factors, including central bank asset diversification and private sector portfolio reallocation, rather than a straightforward narrative of devaluation [8]