上银基金陈博：范式变迁下的新潮投资思维

Core Insights - The global capital markets have entered a high volatility environment since October 2025, influenced by multiple factors, with rising risk aversion pushing international gold prices to new highs and significant corrections in China's high-tech stock market, while defensive sectors like consumer and dividend stocks have performed well [2] - The potential style shift in equity markets is a hot topic among investors, with short-term strong style shifts driven by A-share quarterly reports and seasonal effects, while long-term changes in China's investment paradigm require a new mindset to embrace changes and discover alpha opportunities [2][3] Market Environment - China is currently in a "low interest rate + major transformation" phase, where economic development relies on stabilizing employment and economic foundations while also driving growth through technological and cultural breakthroughs [3] - Both dividend and growth sectors are expected to benefit from this trend, with high-dividend companies attracting capital due to their stable cash flows and low-interest environments reducing financing costs for high-risk growth enterprises [3] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy proposed involves a "barbell strategy" combining dividend-themed products and technology-focused products, allowing investors to switch between aggressive and defensive positions based on risk appetite [3][4] - The focus on selecting quality companies with strong business models is emphasized, particularly those with clean balance sheets, effective ROE levels, and high growth potential to generate significant alpha [4] Sector Focus - In the growth technology sector, there is optimism about the development of the entertainment industry, including film, media, and gaming, driven by a shift from material to spiritual consumption in China and advancements in AIGC technology [4] - In the value dividend sector, avoiding "high dividend traps" is crucial, with a focus on leading companies with genuine competitive advantages and traditional industries capable of generating marginal growth [4] Fund Performance - The fund managed by the company, "Shangyin Future Life Flexible Allocation Mixed A," has shown impressive performance with a net value growth rate of 49.69% over the past year as of September 30, 2025, and has received multiple five-star ratings for its performance [6][7] - The fund's investment approach emphasizes diversification across different sectors and asset classes to adapt to the changing investment paradigm, moving away from a narrow focus on single sectors [6][10] Future Outlook - The Chinese risk assets represented by A-shares are expected to undergo a systematic revaluation, with industry rotation providing significant alpha opportunities in the fourth quarter, alongside a potential increase in valuation levels [7]