高市早苗上任在即，日本央行或推迟加息时间表

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the October 30 policy meeting has significantly diminished, with officials indicating that there is no urgency to raise rates even if economic progress is made towards price targets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook - BOJ officials believe that the economy and inflation are developing in line with expectations, with a gradual increase in the likelihood of achieving future outlooks [1]. - There is a cautious stance regarding immediate action due to external uncertainties, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have not yet fully manifested in the data [2]. - The new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is known for advocating monetary easing, which aligns with the BOJ's current position of delaying rate hikes [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Kishida's election as Prime Minister, the market has reacted with a weaker yen and rising stock prices, reflecting expectations for continued stimulus policies and delayed rate hikes [1]. - The probability of a rate hike this month is estimated at around 25%, a slight increase from previous weeks but still significantly lower than the approximately 70% expectation at the end of last month [3][4]. - The BOJ will closely monitor financial market developments, especially fluctuations in the yen, as these are now more directly impacting inflation compared to the past [2][4].