安联经济学家埃里安：AI投资热潮属“理性泡沫” 将助力美国跑赢全球市场

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is experiencing an AI-driven boom, which is helping it outperform global markets, according to Allianz Group's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian [1] - El-Erian describes the current investment frenzy in AI as a "rational bubble" that is expected to significantly enhance productivity [1] - He emphasizes that without AI, the U.S. economy would not be performing as well and would struggle to compete globally, although he notes that only a few AI companies may emerge as winners in the long run [1] Group 2 - El-Erian discusses the simultaneous rise in gold prices, attributing this trend to global concerns about the U.S. dollar rather than domestic economic weakness [1] - He points out that while foreign investors trust the U.S. private sector, they are increasingly worried about the dollar, leading to a diversification of assets into gold by central banks and institutional investors [1] Group 3 - On the topic of private credit, El-Erian acknowledges some market pressures but denies any serious stability concerns, stating that current financial pressures will not undermine the foundations of financial stability [2] - He expresses a positive outlook on the overall financial system, suggesting that despite some cases of excessive risk-taking, the private credit market provides valuable financing options for businesses that might otherwise struggle to secure funding [2] Group 4 - El-Erian extends his optimistic view to emerging markets, highlighting that the expansion of credit access in these markets is a very positive development [3]