黄金 长期上涨逻辑未改

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in the U.S. economy, the rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the potential for gold prices to maintain a bullish trend in the long term due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [1][9]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, leading to a downward trend in real interest rates [1][9]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical conflicts are contributing to market uncertainty and driving up gold prices [1][7]. Gold Price Trends - Since early 2025, gold has seen two significant price increases, with the latest surge attributed to expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [3][9]. - As of October 17, 2025, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,300 per ounce, with an increase of over 60% in both New York and London gold prices since the beginning of the year [3]. Gold Demand - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 1,016 million ounces since November 2022 [4][5]. - In Q2 2025, global gold demand rose by 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, with a significant increase in value by 45% to $132 billion [5][6]. Investment Sentiment - The market is currently characterized by high risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown, which has led to delays in key economic data releases [7][8]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction is increasing, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in the coming months [8][9].