香港第一金PPLI：现货黄金重返4381美元/盎司新高 金价上升趋势未改

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased safe-haven demand, monetary policy expectations, and technical buying signals, indicating a strong upward momentum in the gold market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices experienced a "V-shaped reversal," initially dropping below $4230 per ounce but rebounding to surpass $4350, reflecting a daily increase of nearly 2% [2]. - Last week, gold reached a historical high of $4380.79 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 5.69%, despite a 1.8% technical correction on the previous Friday [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Increased safe-haven demand is driven by renewed concerns over U.S. regional bank risks and ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. government, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Gaza region [3]. - Market expectations are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in both October and December meetings, with indications that the Fed may end its balance sheet reduction soon [3]. - Technical analysis shows strong support for gold prices in the $4200-$4250 range, which coincides with key moving averages, indicating robust buying interest at lower levels [3]. Group 3: Technical Signals - The key support level for gold is identified at $4200, with a critical resistance level at $4378. A weekly close above this resistance could trigger further price acceleration [4]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 57, suggesting that as long as it remains above 50, a healthy consolidation rather than a deep correction is likely [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - While the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, short-term risks of price pullbacks are present due to high market congestion and potential profit-taking by market makers [5]. - Changes in trade relations, particularly comments from President Trump regarding tariffs, may limit upward price potential for gold [5]. - Upcoming key data, such as the U.S. October CPI report, will play a decisive role ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The long-term investment value of gold remains significant, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including a continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China [6]. - For short-term trading, attention should be given to the $4300-$4320 support area for potential buying opportunities, while a drop below $4300 would warrant a reassessment of positions [6].