华尔街先知Yardeni：油价下跌将推动10年期美债收益率降至3.75%

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni predicts that declining oil prices may push the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield back to levels not seen in over a year, potentially reaching 3.75% if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates next week [1] - The prediction is based on the long-term correlation between oil prices and Treasury yields, where oil prices influence inflation, which in turn affects the interest rate market [1] - The recent rally in U.S. Treasuries has been supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over regional bank risks, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 3.96% and a cumulative decline of approximately 17 basis points this month [1] Group 2 - The simultaneous rise of U.S. Treasuries and equities is noted as a "rare" market moment, indicating traders are betting on a "Goldilocks" scenario where economic growth slows enough to curb inflation without leading to a recession [3][7] - The decline in oil prices, attributed to a worsening oil surplus and concerns over a global economic slowdown, has pushed WTI crude oil prices down to below $57 from a high of $80 per barrel earlier this year [4] - Lower energy prices are expected to further support Treasury performance, creating a favorable market environment for investors [7]