黄金已成“迷因资产”？“老债王”格罗斯建议等一等再入手

Group 1 - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, warns investors to be cautious about the recent surge in gold prices despite concerns over the U.S. budget deficit and economic slowdown [1] - Gross highlights the potential risks in regional banks, referencing recent issues disclosed by Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorp, and compares the situation to "cockroach risk" in the banking sector [1][2] - The memory of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse two years ago continues to impact market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in stock prices and a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [1] Group 2 - Gross believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield should be higher than the recent closing price of approximately 4.01%, suggesting a more reasonable level would be around 4.5% due to the large debt supply and budget deficit [2] - The surge in debt levels across major developed economies has caused investor unease regarding global currencies, leading to increased bets on precious metals and Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation [2] - Gold prices have risen over 60% this year, with some forecasts predicting prices could reach $10,000 per ounce by 2030 if the current trend continues [3] Group 3 - Gross indicates that the current rise in gold prices may be overextended, as evidenced by a significant drop after reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce [3][4] - The phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is influencing gold trading, making it difficult to objectively value the metal [4] - Despite bullish arguments for gold, such as potential Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, there are signs of market overheating, including stable dollar rates and rising inflation-protected bond yields [4]