避险资金涌入 瑞士法郎兑欧元逼近十年来高位

Core Insights - The Swiss Franc is approaching a ten-year high against the Euro due to increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by new tariffs and political concerns [1] - The Euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate reached 0.92146, only about 0.2% away from its level in January 2015 [1] - In the past month, the Swiss Franc is the only currency among the G10 that has appreciated against the US Dollar, influenced by trade protectionism fears and political instability in France and Japan [1] Trading Activity - Options trading data indicates heightened demand, with Euro to Swiss Franc trading volume reaching its highest level since August, and Dollar to Swiss Franc trading volume at a one-month high [1] - Kit Juckes from Societe Generale highlights the advantages of the Norwegian Krone, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc in the context of growth potential and safe-haven characteristics [3] Policy Considerations - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to release a summary report of its September interest rate meeting, which will be closely analyzed by investors for indications on how the SNB will respond to the strong Swiss Franc [3] - The cost of hedging has risen to its highest level since mid-August, with premiums for options to buy Swiss Francs returning to June levels, indicating traders are seeking protection and clear trading direction [3] Economic Outlook - Economists have largely abandoned the idea of returning to negative interest rates, aligning with market pricing, but the SNB has various policy options to balance imported inflation and external shocks [6] - Analysts from Danske Bank suggest that the SNB is more likely to consider intervention measures before contemplating negative rates, given the strong real trade-weighted exchange rate of the Swiss Franc and potential tariff measures on Swiss exports to the US [6] - Despite the strong Swiss Franc, it is anticipated that the Euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate will trend downward over the next year [6]