安联2025-2027经济展望全解析：十大核心问题，看清未来五年全球经济走向

Group 1 - The report outlines a global economy entering a phase of "mild stagflation" and "high uncertainty," with central banks struggling to balance weak growth, persistent inflation, and large fiscal deficits [2][3] - Trade war costs are primarily borne by exporters, with the U.S. consumers expected to feel the impact of tariffs, which could raise inflation by +0.6 percentage points by mid-2026 [3] - Global trade volume growth is projected to slow significantly from +2% in 2025 to +0.6% in 2026, indicating a challenging environment for international commerce [3] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for long-term interest rates to rise due to high fiscal deficits, with the U.S. expected to see a GDP drag of approximately -0.3% from tariffs [3][4] - The European defense spending is anticipated to increase significantly in 2026-2027, with a proposed investment of €800 billion over four years, which could boost GDP growth by about +0.2 percentage points [4][5] - Companies are facing high financing costs, with a projected increase in global corporate bankruptcies by +6% in 2025 and +4% in 2026, peaking around 2027 [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that while there is no current bubble, the AI hype has been fully priced in, with U.S. stock valuations remaining high but supported by strong long-term earnings growth [5] - Emerging markets, excluding China, are in an expansion cycle, with growth expectations exceeding forecasts, although certain countries like Argentina and Brazil are highlighted as needing close monitoring [5] - The potential for a trade recession is assessed at a 45% probability, driven by U.S. tariff escalations impacting global growth and inflation [5]