广发证券:25Q3家电内销维持增长 外销下滑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-21 08:53

Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic appliance market in China is experiencing rapid growth in sales, significantly outperforming the overall consumer market, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment reaching 144.8 billion yuan in July-August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The export of home appliances is declining, with cumulative exports from July to September 2025 amounting to 24.47 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, primarily due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and weakened demand against a high base [1] - White goods are showing good growth in domestic sales, while exports are slowing down; air conditioning products are performing the best in retail, although price competition is intense [1] Group 2: Small Appliances - In the small appliance sector, the average price of kitchen appliances has significantly increased, with online average prices for electric steamers, health pots, rice cookers, electric pressure cookers, and electric kettles rising by 20%, 16%, 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively [2] - The export of small appliances is declining due to tariffs and high export bases, although the vacuum cleaner market in China is recovering, with slight price increases observed [2] Group 3: Black Appliances - The demand for television products is weakening, with retail volume growth slowing; however, downstream manufacturers are optimizing product structures to enhance average prices and profitability [2] - Domestic retail volume of color TVs increased by 1.5% year-on-year, while retail value rose by 3.2% for offline sales, and online sales volume decreased by 0.4% but sales value increased by 9.7% [2] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - White goods are expected to maintain stable growth, benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy; recommended stocks include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [3] - For small appliances, companies with global market share growth and product expansion, such as Roborock Technology and Ninebot, are recommended [3] - Leading black appliance companies like Hisense and TCL are expected to benefit from global market share increases and product upgrades [3]