哭泣的人会是谁？前8个月都曾买美国大豆，9月真的降至“零”了

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in China's soybean import dynamics, particularly the complete cessation of imports from the United States in September 2025, marking a strategic realignment towards South American suppliers [2][6][10]. Import Data Overview - From January to September 2025, Brazil was the dominant supplier of genetically modified soybeans to China, with imports totaling approximately 63.7 million tons, accounting for 73.91% of the total imports [1]. - The United States ranked second with 16.8 million tons, representing 19.5% of the total imports, all of which were genetically modified soybeans [1][2]. - In September 2025 alone, Brazil supplied 10.96 million tons, capturing 85.17% of the market share, while Argentina contributed 1.17 million tons, representing 9.12% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The complete absence of U.S. soybean imports in September signifies a drastic change in China's sourcing strategy, with South American countries now providing nearly all of the imports [4][5]. - The average import price for U.S. soybeans was approximately 3.30 RMB per kilogram, slightly higher than Brazil's price of 3.16 RMB per kilogram, indicating a lack of price competitiveness for U.S. soybeans [5][10]. Economic Implications - The cessation of U.S. soybean imports is expected to have severe economic repercussions for American farmers, potentially leading to revenue losses exceeding $10 billion due to the loss of the Chinese market [9][12]. - In contrast, China's soybean supply chain demonstrated resilience, maintaining stable prices and effectively meeting domestic demand through alternative sources [9][10]. Strategic Shift - The article emphasizes a long-term trend of increasing reliance on South American soybean suppliers, with Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay collectively accounting for 99.59% of imports in September 2025 [5][6]. - This shift not only reflects a strategic adjustment in import sources but also highlights China's ability to adapt to changing global trade dynamics without incurring additional costs [10][12].