Buy IBM Stock Ahead of Its Earnings?

Core Insights - IBM is scheduled to release its earnings report on October 22, 2025, with historical trends indicating a 58% chance of positive one-day returns following earnings announcements [2][7] - Current consensus estimates for IBM's upcoming earnings are $2.45 per share on revenue of $16.1 billion, showing growth from the previous year's earnings of $2.30 per share on revenue of $14.97 billion [3] - IBM's market capitalization stands at $262 billion, with reported revenues of $64 billion, operating profits of $11 billion, and net income of $5.8 billion over the past twelve months [4] Historical Performance - In the last five years, IBM has recorded 19 earnings data points, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, resulting in a median positive return of 4.7% and a median negative return of -7.1% [7] - The percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 55% when analyzing the last three years, compared to 58% over the last five years [7] Trading Strategies - Traders can adopt two main strategies: pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities or post-earnings positioning to assess immediate and medium-term returns [6] - Understanding the correlation between one-day and subsequent five-day returns can inform trading decisions, particularly if a positive one-day return is observed [8]