“寡妇交易”卷土重来：做空日本国债成今年最赚钱交易之一！

Core Viewpoint - The "widow trade," previously a losing strategy in Japan's bond market, has transformed into one of the most profitable bets in 2023 as Japanese government bonds face significant sell-offs, leading to a total return loss exceeding 4% this year, making it the worst-performing government bond globally [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Japan's bond market is experiencing its most severe sell-off in decades, driven by repeated interest rate hike expectations and concerns over potential large-scale fiscal stimulus from the new Prime Minister [1][5]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historical high this month, with Goldman Sachs labeling Japan as a "net exporter of bearish shocks" in the global bond market [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly adopting short positions on Japanese government bonds, with strategies focusing on shorting five-year bonds as a primary execution method [4][5]. - Western Asset Management has maintained a short duration strategy in the Japanese bond market, while RBC BlueBay Asset Management has recently established positions betting on the decline of 10-year Japanese government bond prices [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's core inflation rate has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2% target over the past three years, despite a series of interest rate hikes, indicating that Japanese rates remain low by global standards [5][6]. - Japan holds the highest government debt-to-GDP ratio among developed countries, raising concerns about fiscal policy and its implications for bond yields [5][6]. Group 4: Political Landscape - The new Prime Minister, who has promised cash subsidies and tax cuts, has raised concerns about fiscal expansion pushing long-term yields higher, amidst a backdrop of political instability [1][7]. - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition has plunged Japan into a significant political crisis, further complicating the bond market outlook [1][7].