暴跌，黄金重大变局！

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical high of $4,381.29 before closing at $4,356.26 [1] - Following the surge, gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below the $4,300 mark and hovering around $4,276 [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, now entering its 20th day, after the Senate failed to pass a funding bill [4] - The funding bill aimed to extend government funding until November 21 but did not meet the required 60 votes, receiving only 50 in favor [4] - The shutdown has led to approximately 1,400 employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration being placed on unpaid leave, marking the first such occurrence since the agency's establishment in 2000 [4] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones up 1.12% to 46,706.58, the S&P 500 up 1.07% to 6,735.13, and the Nasdaq up 1.37% to 22,990.54 [2] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential resolution of the government shutdown [2] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October stands at 99.4%, with a 0.6% chance of maintaining current rates [5] - For December, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 98.6% [5] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has made multiple statements regarding trade negotiations with China, indicating a potential for both tariffs and agreements [7] - The market reacted positively to Trump's final statement expressing hope for China's prosperity, leading to gains in U.S. stock indices [7] Group 6: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump has threatened to impose "huge tariffs" on Indian goods if India does not cease purchasing Russian oil, escalating tensions between the two nations [8] - An Indian official noted that trade-related differences between India and the U.S. have narrowed, with hopes for an agreement to reduce punitive tariffs [10] Group 7: Political Developments in Japan - On October 21, high-profile politician Takashi Saito was elected as Japan's first female Prime Minister, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies and increased defense spending [12] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has formed a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after the Komeito party exited the ruling alliance [14] Group 8: Ukraine Conflict - Ukrainian President Zelensky has rejected Russia's demands for a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas region, maintaining Ukraine's position in ongoing negotiations [15]