老登们的春天还会远吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese stock market, particularly the contrasting sentiments between "old investors" and "new investors," highlighting the lack of fundamental support for the market's performance and the challenges facing consumer sectors [1][2][5]. Economic Data - The September retail sales growth rate was 3%, continuing a downward trend from a peak of 5% in May [7]. - The restaurant industry, closely related to "old investors," saw a significant decline, with growth at only 0.9% in September, and revenue from large-scale restaurant enterprises dropping by 1.6% [9]. - The liquor industry, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, experienced a nearly 20% decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day period, indicating a broader economic slowdown [11]. Consumer Confidence - The decline in housing prices has severely impacted household wealth, contributing to weakened consumer spending intentions [13][14]. - The article notes that the current consumer spending as a percentage of GDP in China is around 30%, significantly lower than in developed countries like the U.S., where it is about 70% [19]. - There is a call for policy measures to increase the share of consumer spending in GDP, which is essential for long-term economic growth [22]. Long-term Outlook - The article emphasizes the need for a catalyst to restore long-term confidence in the market, as current sentiments are heavily influenced by pessimism regarding demographic trends and economic conditions [15][17]. - It suggests that improving the income distribution structure could mitigate the negative impacts of population decline on consumption [20][21].